Партиите членки на германската владина коалиција изразија поддршка на препораките изнесени во извештајот на група експерти ангажирани од страна на владите Германија и Франција посветен не реформите и проширувањето на ЕУ, објавен пред десетина дена, но се стравува дека целиот процес би можел да биде блокиран поради противењето на одредени земји членки, пред се Полска, но и поради можната промена на власта во Берлин по изборите во 2025 година.
Во Извештајот се предлагаат серија реформи што би требало да ги спроведе ЕУ во рамки на подготовките за прием на нови членки, при што се потенцира дека проширувањето на Унијата до 2030 година е од суштинско значење и неговото одлагање би создало геополитички ризици.
Според портпаролот за европски прашања на најголемата политичка сила во германската владина „семафор“ коалиција, Социјалдемократската партија на Германија (СПД), Кристијан Петри, 2030 може да биде година на проширување на ЕУ, доколку „сите страни ги спроведат неопходните реформи“.
– Статус кво состојбата не носи стабилност, смета Петри.
Неговата колешка од владиниот коалициски партнер, сојузот Зелени, Шантал Копф изјави дека приемот на нови членки е во интерес на самата ЕУ, бидејќи ќе ја направи посилна, постабилна и побезбедна.
– Денес европските и демократските институции се на удар, повеќе од кога било досега, изјави портпаролка на Зелените за европски прашања, Копф.
Третиот владин партнер, либералната Слободна демократска партија (ФДП) ги поздрави, како што изјави нејзиниот портпарол за европски прашања, Михаел Линк, „широките предлози“ на експертската комисија, но изјави дека либералите нема да ја поддржат идејата фискалните и даночни политики во ЕУ да се носат со квалификувано мнозинство гласови, а не како досега со консензус на сите земји членки. Според Линк, таквиот предлог би претставувал „погрешен пат“.
Од друга, според Петри од СПД, постои загриженост дека „амбициозната временска рамка“ би можела да биде успорена, поради противењето на некои од реформите во ЕУ од страна на одредени земји членки.
– Најголема пречка е недостигот на политичка волја во одредени земји членки, особено некои од оние кои се залагаат за брз прием на Украина, рече Петри, без да именува конкретно некоја земја.
За најжесток поддржувач на членството на Украина во ЕУ, во Брисел важи Полска, чија влада меѓутоа е жестоко против укинување на консензусот во Унијата при носењето одлуки за повеќето прашања.
Дополнителен проблем во спроведувањето на француско-германскиот план за реформи и проширување на ЕУ, би можел да преставува и еветуалната промена на власта во Белин по федералните избори во 2025 година.
Анкетите на јавното мислење во Германија покажуваат дека опозициската Христијанско демократска унија (ЦДУ) ужива поддршка на 26,5 до 29 отсто од избирачите, пред екстремнодесничарската Алијанса за Германија (АФД) со меѓу 21 и 23 проценти, па дури потоа следуваат трите владејачки партии – СПД со 16 до 18, Зелените со 14 до 16 и ФДП со шест до седум проценти поддршка, како и партијата Левица за која би гласале четири од пет отсто од гласачите.
ЦДУ официјално се уште се нема изјаснато за експертскиот предлог, но партискиот портпарол за европски прашања Гинтер Крихбаум изјави дека проширувањето не треба да се врзува за датуми, туку за тоа дали одредена земја кандидат за членство ги исполнува утврдените критериуми, особено оние поврзани со владеењето на правото.
– Преговорите за членство може да траат со години, ако не и со децении, а при тоа не е невообичаено да дојде до регресија, изјави Крихбаум, оценувајќи дека би било грешка да се одредува целен датум за проширувањето.
Со оценките на германско-француската експертска комисија за потребата од проширување на ЕУ се согласува и истражувачката на бриселскиот Центар за европска политика (ЦЕП), Елеонора Поли, која смета дека за да се одбрани од опасното надворешно влијание и играта на моќ на Западниот Балкан, Унијата треба да под итно да го забрза процесот за прием на четирите држави кандидатки за членство од регионот „кои се заглавени во чекалната на ЕУ околу една деценија“.
– Во време кога се формираат центри на моќ во разни региони, ЕУ би сигнализирала дека не е доволно силна да дејствува како кохезивна регионална сила доколку ја одложи интеграцијата на делови од сопствениот географски регион, изјави Поли за „Еурактив“, додавајќи дека земји како Кина, Русија и Саудиска Арабија веќе работат на зајакнување на своето влијание на Балканот.
Сепак, Поли смета дека поради „недостиг на политичка волја“ кај некои земји членки на ЕУ, рокот за спроведување на реформите во Унијата до 2030 година во моментов изгледа нереален.
Но, од друга страна, социјалдемократот Петри е оптимист за можностите за проширување на Унијата, оценувајќи дека шансите за тоа „со години не биле толку големи како што се сега“.
Прв тест за перспективите на француско-германскиот експертски предлог се очекува да биде утрешниот неформален Совет за општи работи на ЕУ, на кој нејверојатно ќе се дебатира и за објавениот Извештај на групата експерти.
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